原標(biāo)題：李彥宏：AI已改變搜索行業(yè)，未來十年人們對(duì)手機(jī)的依賴將逐步降低｜CEO說

文章來源：新浪

摘要： 近日，百度創(chuàng)始人、董事長(zhǎng)兼CEO李彥宏作為受邀嘉賓出席了印度理工學(xué)院（IIT）馬德拉斯分院舉辦的Shaastra 2020科技節(jié)“Spotlight Lecture Series”活動(dòng)，發(fā)表了題為“人工智能時(shí)代的創(chuàng)新”的演講。

近日，百度創(chuàng)始人、董事長(zhǎng)兼CEO李彥宏作為受邀嘉賓出席了印度理工學(xué)院（IIT）馬德拉斯分院舉辦的Shaastra 2020科技節(jié)“Spotlight Lecture Series”活動(dòng)，發(fā)表了題為“人工智能時(shí)代的創(chuàng)新”的演講。在他看來，隨著AI的發(fā)展，未來會(huì)有越來越多的搜索可以直接得到答案。展望未來十年，我們對(duì)手機(jī)的依賴程度會(huì)逐步降低。

演講中，李彥宏表示，移動(dòng)時(shí)代改變了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，應(yīng)用程序正在變成一座座孤島。“很多大型APP已經(jīng)成為相互孤立的狀態(tài)，它們的內(nèi)容和服務(wù)無法通過搜索引擎或第三方程序方便獲取。”

“進(jìn)入AI時(shí)代，搜索也在不斷發(fā)展變化”，他認(rèn)為，“搜索技術(shù)的發(fā)展日新月異。以前，搜索技術(shù)在我看來基本上就是一種統(tǒng)計(jì)技術(shù)。但在今天，所有的一切都是機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)。”

對(duì)此，他進(jìn)一步解釋道，在20、25年前，當(dāng)搜索引擎剛剛開始流行起來的時(shí)候，背后的技術(shù)與人工智能毫無關(guān)系。現(xiàn)在之所以說搜索本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人工智能的問題，原因就在于，當(dāng)人們用文字、問題提出請(qǐng)求或者表達(dá)興趣的時(shí)候，計(jì)算機(jī)會(huì)推測(cè)人類或用戶的意圖，從而提供相關(guān)答案。而這就是人工智能的本質(zhì)，即讓計(jì)算機(jī)了解人類、服務(wù)人類。

作為百度的本行，搜索也將被人工智能改變。李彥宏稱，越來越多的搜索將直接得到答案，而不是像過去，給用戶大量鏈接讓他們自己去尋找正確答案。目前的首條滿足率是60％，之后將上升至70％、80％甚至90％。人們將更容易直接得到正確答案，而不再需要點(diǎn)擊不同的鏈接、瀏覽不同的網(wǎng)頁。

談到他眼中的未來十年，李彥宏表示，未來十年屬于人工智能，智能經(jīng)濟(jì)也將成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的新標(biāo)簽。“如果說互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了我們的消費(fèi)方式、娛樂方式，那么智能經(jīng)濟(jì)將改變我們的生產(chǎn)方式，將大大提高人類的生產(chǎn)力。”

對(duì)于智能經(jīng)濟(jì)改變生產(chǎn)方式，他認(rèn)為可以分成三個(gè)方面來理解：首先是全新的人機(jī)交互模式，其次是人工智能將變革各行各業(yè)，最后是人工智能基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

其中，在新的人機(jī)交互模式方面，李彥宏判斷，未來十年，人們對(duì)于手機(jī)的需求度和依賴度會(huì)大大降低。“因?yàn)闊o論走到哪里，我們周圍都有傳感器，有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，它們可以回答我們的問題，為我們服務(wù)，所以我們不必每次都掏出手機(jī)。這就是人工智能的力量。”

以下為李彥宏演講全文：

Good afternoon everyone. It’s so great to see you all come to my talk today on a Saturday afternoon. I heard people who can not get into IIT go to MIT. I know why today because you are so eager to learn new things.

各位下午好，很高興大家在這個(gè)周六的下午來參加我的講座。我聽說沒有進(jìn)入印度理工學(xué)院的人才最后去了麻省理工學(xué)院，今天我明白了，這是因?yàn)樵谧母魑粚?duì)探索新知是那么的渴求。

Today I’m going to talk about innovation in the age of AI because everyone knows that AI is the major wave these days.

大家都知道，人工智能是當(dāng)今世界的一大潮流。今天，我將和大家探討人工智能時(shí)代的創(chuàng)新。

Before I talk about AI, I would like to go over with you what’s happened to the internet after smart phones. Or, how has mobile changed the internet? Of course, this is pretty much a China perspective because I guess most of you are more familiar with the US landscape, but China is slightly different because we have a relatively independent ecosystem in mobile.

在談 AI 之前，我想和大家回顧一下智能手機(jī)誕生之后互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的演變，或者說移動(dòng)時(shí)代是如何改變互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的。當(dāng)然，在座的各位可能對(duì)美國(guó)的情況比較熟悉，我將主要從中國(guó)的角度進(jìn)行回顧。中國(guó)的情況與美國(guó)有些不同，因?yàn)槲覀儞碛邢鄬?duì)獨(dú)立的移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。

The first change is apps becoming isolated islands. What that means is that there are quite a number of large apps that are wrapped around isolated (islands) - the contents, the services are not so easily accessible by search engines or third-party programs. We see that as a trend that more and more apps are doing things independently instead of relying on a search engine.

首先，應(yīng)用程序正在變成一座座孤島。也就是說，很多大型 APP 已經(jīng)成為相互孤立的狀態(tài)，它們的內(nèi)容和服務(wù)無法通過搜索引擎或第三方程序方便獲取。我們認(rèn)為這是一種趨勢(shì)。越來越多的應(yīng)用程序開始獨(dú)立運(yùn)行，不再依賴搜索引擎。

And the second is that content is linked to an author. What that means is in the PC era, we pretty much interacted with web sites or web pages. We know there’s a webmaster behind the website but we probably never think about directly communicating with the webmaster. But in the age of mobile, content is closely linked to authors, especially on social media.

其次，內(nèi)容開始直接與作者相連。在個(gè)人電腦時(shí)代，我們的互動(dòng)對(duì)象主要是網(wǎng)站或網(wǎng)頁，我們知道網(wǎng)頁的背后是網(wǎng)絡(luò)管理員、站長(zhǎng)，但我們可能從沒想過直接和網(wǎng)絡(luò)管理員進(jìn)行交流。但是，在移動(dòng)時(shí)代（尤其在社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)上），所有內(nèi)容經(jīng)常會(huì)直接與作者緊密相連。

And even today, especially in China, news feeds, orcontent feeds, are very popular. When you search for things, not only (will) you find the relevant content, it’s easy for you to find the author behind the content. So today, when you find the relevant content you can ask questions and most likely that author will directly respond to your questions. This is increasingly the case for mobile internet.

現(xiàn)如今，尤其是在中國(guó)，新聞推送或內(nèi)容推送都非常流行。用戶進(jìn)行搜索時(shí)，不僅能查找到相關(guān)內(nèi)容，還能方便地找到該內(nèi)容的作者。在查找到相關(guān)內(nèi)容后，用戶可以提問題，而作者很可能直接回應(yīng)用戶的問題。在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代，這種情況越來越普遍。

And the third one is video. Video is becoming the main form of content. We used to see text, then more and more images became available on the internet, and today video has become the most important form of content on the internet. People’s mindsets are also changing toward video content.

第三是視頻的興起。視頻正在成為主要的內(nèi)容形式。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上，我們最初看到的是文字，后來看到越來越多的圖片。當(dāng)前，視頻已經(jīng)成為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上最重要的內(nèi)容形式。人們對(duì)視頻內(nèi)容的心態(tài)也在發(fā)生變化。

Today, if you search for, let’s say, the general relativity theory, you probably would imagine that a Wikipedia entry would come up as the first result. In the case of Baidu, a Baidu encyclopedia entry would come up as the first result. But if you think about it, a video clip, video content, could be a better answer for this query because we can probably find a very good talker, very good teacher, to talk about the relativity theory in a good way, very easy-to-understand way.

比如說，如果你搜索廣義相對(duì)論，你看到的第一條搜索結(jié)果可能是維基百科條目。如果以百度為例，那百度百科將會(huì)是第一條搜索結(jié)果。但請(qǐng)?jiān)O(shè)想一下，一個(gè)視頻片段或視頻形式的內(nèi)容，可能會(huì)是這項(xiàng)查詢結(jié)果更好的答案。因?yàn)槲覀兡苷业揭粋€(gè)很好的敘述者、很好的老師去用非常簡(jiǎn)單易懂的形式闡述什么是相對(duì)論。

You feel you’re connected to the teacher, to the person who created that content, instead of just hard text. This kind of theory is relatively hard to understand. And video provides a lower barrier to entry for this kind of knowledge and content.

在這種形式下，你能感覺到自己和這位老師、這位講述者是相連的，而不只是面對(duì)一些單一的文字。像相對(duì)論這樣的理論是比較難以理解的，而視頻則降低了此類知識(shí)與內(nèi)容的獲得門檻。

So this is what we see during the mobile internet age.

這是我們?cè)谝苿?dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代看到的情景。

And in the age of AI, search is evolving too. So, how is AI changing search?

進(jìn)入 AI 時(shí)代，搜索也在不斷發(fā)展變化。那么，人工智能究竟如何改變搜索呢？

We’re also seeing a number of trends. The first is that the first result is typically the right answer. Right now about 60% of queries are answered by the first result.

我們目前看到很多新的趨勢(shì)。首先，第一條搜索結(jié)果通常是正確答案，目前搜索首條結(jié)果回答了大約60％的查詢。

So, we are increasingly giving direct answers instead of a very large number of links for the users to find the right answer. And I believe this kind of scenario will become more and more popular, or, an increasing number of queries will be answered directly by the first result or by a paragraph of content.

有越來越多的搜索將直接得到答案，而不是像過去，給用戶大量鏈接讓他們自己去尋找正確答案。我相信這種情況會(huì)越來越普遍，也就是說用首條搜索結(jié)果或一段內(nèi)容就能直接解決搜索問題的情況將更多。

So right now it's like 60%, it will go to 70%, 80%, or even 90%. So increasingly your query will be answered directly instead of going through a list of websites or links. Because, if you think about the search problem, it's essentially an AI problem.

目前的首條滿足率是60％，之后將上升至70％、80％甚至90％。人們將更容易直接得到正確答案，而不再需要點(diǎn)擊不同的鏈接、瀏覽不同的網(wǎng)頁。因?yàn)樗阉鲉栴}本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人工智能的問題。

Although, 20, 25 years ago, when search engines became popular, the technology behind it had nothing to do with AI. But search is essentially an AI problem because you basically, humans, express their request, their interest, in the form of queries or text, then we use computers to guess what that human or what user means, then come up with the relevant answer. And if you think about AI, that's pretty much the definition of AI, letting computers understand humans and serve humans.

在20、25年前，當(dāng)搜索引擎剛剛開始流行起來的時(shí)候，背后的技術(shù)與人工智能毫無關(guān)系。現(xiàn)在之所以說搜索本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人工智能的問題，原因就在于，當(dāng)人們用文字、問題提出請(qǐng)求或者表達(dá)興趣的時(shí)候，計(jì)算機(jī)會(huì)推測(cè)人類或用戶的意圖，從而提供相關(guān)答案。而這就是人工智能的本質(zhì)，即讓計(jì)算機(jī)了解人類、服務(wù)人類。

So solving the search problem is pretty much like solving the general AI problem. It is a hard problem, but we are getting closer and closer.

所以說，解決搜索問題實(shí)際上更像是解決一個(gè)普遍的人工智能問題。這是一個(gè)很大的挑戰(zhàn)，但我們離目標(biāo)越來越近了。

Then second, content feed blends with search results. What that means - given that in a lot of cases, in most cases, the first result is the right answer, or we can directly answer your question without having you go through a large number of links, so the rest of the links becomes redundant.

其次，內(nèi)容推送與搜索結(jié)果之間的界限日趨模糊。也就是說，在大多數(shù)情況下，一個(gè)搜索結(jié)果就可以解決你的搜索問題，你不再需要翻看其他鏈接的時(shí)候，這些鏈接也就成了多余信息。

We actually don't need to give you a lot of redundant content. So once your query is answered, what we would like to give you is knowledge related to that topic, but not directly on that topic.

實(shí)際上，我們也不需要提供多余信息。一旦你提出的問題已經(jīng)有了答案，我們會(huì)更愿意提供與你搜索的話題相關(guān)的其他知識(shí)，而不需要與你的問題直接相關(guān)。

For example, if you search for Van Gogh, and the first result is about the general introduction of Van Gogh, then the second one can be a general introduction about Monet. It doesn’t have to have the word Van Gogh in it. Once your question is answered, we can expand the content based on your interest, not necessarily related to your query, based on our understanding of your interests, of you as a user.

比如說你搜索梵高，首條結(jié)果是對(duì)他的概述，那么第二條可能就是對(duì)莫奈的簡(jiǎn)要介紹。這個(gè)結(jié)果并不一定需要包含梵高兩個(gè)字。所以，一旦你提出的問題得到解答，我們就會(huì)基于你的興趣擴(kuò)展你搜索得到的內(nèi)容。不需要與你的問題直接相關(guān)，而是根據(jù)我們對(duì)你的興趣的理解來提供內(nèi)容。

In the age of mobile, we actually know a lot more about our users than the PC era, so we can actually extend the user's interests a lot. We can give them more and let users spend more time.

在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)代，我們對(duì)用戶的了解遠(yuǎn)比在個(gè)人電腦時(shí)代豐富的多。正因如此，我們才能真正做到擴(kuò)大對(duì)用戶興趣的了解。我們給的內(nèi)容越多，用戶花費(fèi)的時(shí)間也就越多。

In China, on average every user spends about five hours on the mobile phone (per day) and that's still increasing. People spend more and more time, and for search, we can directly answer users' queries in one shot, so we are giving more and more relevant content to our users.

在中國(guó)，人均每天使用手機(jī)的時(shí)間大約是五個(gè)小時(shí)，這個(gè)數(shù)字還在不斷增加。那么就搜索而言，如果我們可以直接滿足搜索要求，人們花費(fèi)的時(shí)間越多，就意味著我們正為客戶提供越來越多的與之相關(guān)的內(nèi)容。

Then the third, I think many of you already have this kind of experience, the camera and microphone become the new keyboard. You don't have to express your interest in text only, you can express your interest in speech, in images, or in video. If you are interested in a certain plant and wonder what the name is, you can just use your camera and point to that flower and it will tell you. This has increasingly become accurate because of AI.

第三，我想在座的很多人已經(jīng)有了這樣的體驗(yàn)，相機(jī)和麥克風(fēng)已經(jīng)成了新的鍵盤。未來搜索將不僅限于文字，用戶還可以用語音、圖像或者視頻來表達(dá)意圖。比如你對(duì)某個(gè)植物感到好奇，不知道它叫什么，那么對(duì)它拍個(gè)照就會(huì)有答案。人工智能使這樣的搜索結(jié)果變得越來越精確。

So if we have to look back for the past 10 years, as we just entered 2020, I think if we need to put a label on the economy, I would call it the internet economy, because internet changed our lives, changed a lot of things over the past 10 years.

我們已經(jīng)步入2020年，回望過去十年，如果要給這一時(shí)期的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)添加一個(gè)標(biāo)簽的話，我認(rèn)為這個(gè)標(biāo)簽應(yīng)該是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)，因?yàn)檫@十年間，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了我們的生活，改變了很多東西。

It changed payment, food delivery, retail, ride-hailing. And more importantly, I think entertainment.

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了支付、外賣、零售和約車方式。我認(rèn)為更重要的是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了娛樂方式。

Internet changed entertainment. Ten years ago most of us spent a lot of time watching TV. Today, I was at a forum a couple of weeks ago, it's about this size, about 400 people. And I asked, who of you watched TV last night, and none of them raised their hand.

在上一個(gè)十年，我們大多數(shù)人會(huì)花很多時(shí)間看電視。兩周前，我出席了一個(gè)論壇，規(guī)模跟今天差不多，約有400人在場(chǎng)。當(dāng)我問道“有沒有人昨晚看電視了”，沒有一個(gè)人舉手。

Today they spend, you know, five hours playing games or watching short videos just using their mobile phone. They don't watch TV anymore. So the internet fundamentally changed the way people entertain themselves. But, going forward, I think we are entering a new age, the age of AI. So, the characteristics of the economy will also change.

今天，人們會(huì)用手機(jī)玩幾個(gè)小時(shí)的游戲或者看幾個(gè)小時(shí)的短視頻，但根本不會(huì)去看電視。也就是說，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)從根本上改變了人們的娛樂方式。但是，展望未來，我認(rèn)為我們正在進(jìn)入一個(gè)新的時(shí)代——人工智能時(shí)代，而世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的特征也將隨之發(fā)生變化。

So in the coming decade, I would label it as “intelligent economy”. What does that mean, is that if we can see that internet changed the way we consume, or internet changed the way we entertain ourselves, the intelligent economy will change the way we produce. It will significantly improve productivity for humans.

未來十年，智能經(jīng)濟(jì)將成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的新標(biāo)簽。如果說互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變了我們的消費(fèi)方式、娛樂方式，那么智能經(jīng)濟(jì)將改變我們的生產(chǎn)方式，將大大提高人類的生產(chǎn)力。

There are also three layers I'd like to go through. The first one is the new mode of human-machine interaction, the second one is how AI transforms industry after industry, and the last one I'd like to talk about is the infrastructure for AI.

這一點(diǎn)也可以分成三個(gè)方面來講解。首先是全新的人機(jī)交互模式，其次是人工智能將變革各行各業(yè)，最后是人工智能基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

The new human-computer interaction. I think many of you already have this kind of experience. Today, new cars sold on the market are all connected cars, meaning that they are connected to the internet. When you get into a car, you have a screen (that is) bigger and better than your mobile phone screen. You have more expensive microphones, you have cameras, all kinds of sensors in the car, so essentially when you get into the car, you don't need to use your mobile phone anymore.

我想在座很多人已經(jīng)體驗(yàn)過人機(jī)交互的新模式。當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)上銷售的新車都是互聯(lián)汽車，都是連接互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的車。進(jìn)入車內(nèi)，你會(huì)看到一個(gè)比手機(jī)更大、更好的屏幕。車內(nèi)配備了更昂貴的麥克風(fēng)、攝像頭、以及各種類型的傳感器。因此從本質(zhì)上講，當(dāng)你進(jìn)入車內(nèi)之后，就不再需要使用手機(jī)了。

So you can see that it's pretty much all voice controlled. It connects with all kinds of car services, content, and it responds on a continuous basis. You don't have to use wake words every time.And this is an experience that's already on the market today.

正如在視頻中見到的，這幾乎都是語音控制的。車內(nèi)各種服務(wù)、內(nèi)容都具備語音控制功能，并且可以連續(xù)響應(yīng)。在這種情況下，我們不必每次都要使用喚醒詞，現(xiàn)在上市的汽車已經(jīng)具備這一功能。

And at home, you will also have an experience that is very different from today's mobile internet.

我們?cè)诩乙材艿玫脚c當(dāng)今移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)截然不同的體驗(yàn)。

So when you have a smart display at home like this, chances are that you will use your mobile phone less. If you want to know the weather tomorrow, you ask this kind of smart display and it will answer you directly. But if you want to get the weather report from your mobile phone, you typically need to pull out your mobile phone from your pocket, unlock it, find the right app, and type in the destination. It requires a lot of steps.

所以，當(dāng)家里有這樣一臺(tái)智能屏?xí)r，我們就有可能不再那么依賴手機(jī)了。假如想知道明天的天氣，我們只要對(duì)智能屏問一句，它就可以立刻回答。但是如果要通過手機(jī)知道，我們通常需要從兜里掏出它，解鎖，打開 APP，輸入相應(yīng)的關(guān)鍵詞……需要很多很多步驟。

But for a voice-first device like this, it's much more direct and more convenient. The barrier to entry is also lower. You don't even need to be literate. You use talk and it will get you the answer.

但是對(duì)于這樣的語音設(shè)備，它更直接、更方便，使用門檻也更低。我們甚至不需要識(shí)字，只需要說出問題，它就能給出答案。

So because of this, for the past 10 years, we humans are increasingly dependent on mobile phones. I would say over the next 10 years we will be less dependent on the mobile phone, less and less, because wherever you go, there are surrounding sensors, there are infrastructure, that can answer your question, that can serve you. So you don't have to pull out your mobile phone every time. This is the power of AI.

正因?yàn)槿绱耍谶^去十年里，我們?cè)絹碓揭蕾囀謾C(jī)，而對(duì)于未來十年，我有一個(gè)判斷：我們對(duì)手機(jī)依賴程度會(huì)逐步地降低。因?yàn)闊o論走到哪里，我們周圍都有傳感器，有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，它們可以回答我們的問題，為我們服務(wù)，所以我們不必每次都掏出手機(jī)。這就是人工智能的力量。

In production, we also have this kind of new human-machine interaction. We call it "digital person". It's essentially a virtual assistant in the form of human, and doing things that complete your task, like this:

在生產(chǎn)中，也存在這種新型的人機(jī)交互模式——我們稱之為“數(shù)字人”。它本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)人型虛擬助手，能夠幫助我們完成任務(wù)。例如：

Why is this useful? In this case, we’re using it for bank services. A lot of banks can not afford to open all kinds of different branches in many cities. It's very expensive to rent that kind of real estate and hire lots of people. But we can establish this kind of virtual assistant, if you want to open a bank account or if you want to borrow money, or any kind of bank services that require human assistance, you can do that through this kind of virtual assistant.

為什么這是有用的？在這個(gè)案例中，我們將其應(yīng)用到銀行服務(wù)中。很多銀行都無力在各大城市開設(shè)分行，因?yàn)樽饨鹨约肮陀么罅咳藛T的成本太高。但是，如果用戶想要開設(shè)一個(gè)銀行帳戶，或者想要借錢，或者任何需要人工協(xié)助的銀行服務(wù)，我們都可以通過這種虛擬助手來實(shí)現(xiàn)。

And we found that people, users, feel more comfortable to deal with a virtual person than a real person. So not only does it save money, save space, it also becomes more user-friendly. You don't have any pressure. You can say whatever you want and do whatever you want.

而且我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，與真實(shí)的人相比，用戶與虛擬人打交道時(shí)感覺更舒服。這樣不僅節(jié)省資金，節(jié)省空間，而且也更加人性化。在虛擬人面前，我們沒有任何壓力：可以沒有顧慮地交談，做任何想做的事。

So all of these are changing the way we interact with computers or machines. And AI is also transforming a lot of industries, in the sense of higher efficiency and lower risk. Let me go through a couple of them.

所有這些都在改變著我們的人機(jī)交互模式。人工智能還在為許多行業(yè)帶來變革，提高效率降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，讓我們來看幾個(gè)例子。

Customer service. You’ve seen the virtual assistant case for banking, but in many other industries, customer service can be transformed by AI. We've been working with a number of telecomoperators to assist their customer service using virtual assistants. You know in China, I think in India too, a typical telecom operator has like 100 different plans. When a customer calls in, the customer service people can typically recommend a plan that is suitable for that person.

客戶服務(wù)。我們已經(jīng)了解了銀行業(yè)的虛擬助手案例，在許多其他行業(yè)中，人工智能還可以改進(jìn)客戶服務(wù)。我們一直與許多電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商合作，協(xié)助他們使用虛擬助手進(jìn)行客戶服務(wù)。不僅在中國(guó)，我想在印度也是如此，一般情況下，一位電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商會(huì)有100種不同的套餐計(jì)劃。當(dāng)客戶來電時(shí)，客服人員通常可以推薦適合該客戶的方案。

But how do you figure out what's the best plan for that user in one or two minutes? It's very challenging for a real person. But for a virtual assistant, it's actually very easy and quick, and we can use this kind of virtual assistant to do a much more efficient customer service. That's for the telecom industry, and for many other industries we can also find similar cases.

但是，如何能在一兩分鐘之內(nèi)找出最適合該客戶的方案呢？對(duì)真人客服來說，做到這一點(diǎn)是非常具有挑戰(zhàn)性的。但是對(duì)于虛擬助手來說，情況就不同了。它實(shí)際上非常簡(jiǎn)單快捷，能夠提供更高效的客戶服務(wù)。不僅僅是電信行業(yè)，對(duì)于許多其他行業(yè)，我們同樣可以找到類似的案例。

For education, it’s a similar thing. We can come up with a personal tutor, personal assistant, to help students to learn new things. When the student has any kind of questions or problems, we use this kind of virtual assistant to help walk through all kinds of knowledge points and help the students learn.

教育也是一樣。我們可以找一位私人導(dǎo)師，或私人助教來幫助學(xué)生學(xué)習(xí)新知識(shí)。當(dāng)學(xué)生有任何問題或疑問時(shí)，我們都可以通過虛擬助手來幫助學(xué)生梳理各種知識(shí)點(diǎn)，促進(jìn)學(xué)生學(xué)習(xí)。

Also, for the pharmaceutical industry, AI will accelerate the pace of drug discovery. We see a lot ofstartups doing this. Using AI, you can come up with all kinds of different combinations of molecules as drug targets. So you can very quickly generate a lot of potential drug targets and let the biologists, the scientists, to sift through and validate those drug targets.

同樣對(duì)于制藥行業(yè)，人工智能將加快藥物研發(fā)的步伐。我們看到，已經(jīng)有很多初創(chuàng)公司都在這樣做了。通過人工智能，我們可以提出各種不同的分子組合作為藥物靶標(biāo)，然后非常迅速地生成很多潛在的藥物靶標(biāo)，并讓生物學(xué)家和科學(xué)家篩選和驗(yàn)證這些藥物靶標(biāo)。

AI is transforming transportation. This is a very big deal in China because in China we have built a lot of transport-related infrastructure: highways, metros, overpasses. It costs a lot of money. But the software layer of the transportation has not been improved much. In the age of AI, we think that's going to change dramatically. This is a video showing you that.

此外，人工智能也在改變著交通方式。這在中國(guó)是一件大事，因?yàn)樵谥袊?guó)，我們已經(jīng)建造了許多交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，如高速公路、地鐵、立交橋等，這花費(fèi)巨大。但是，交通運(yùn)輸?shù)能浖用鏇]有太大的改進(jìn)。在人工智能時(shí)代，我們認(rèn)為這將發(fā)生巨大變化。

This is the so-called V2X, vehicle to everything, especially V2I, or vehicle to infrastructure. The roadside units will communicate with cars to improve the efficiency of transportation, avoid blind points on the road, assist self-driving, manage parking.

這就是所謂的 V2X，vehicle to everything，尤其是 V2I，vehicle to infrastructure，車路協(xié)同。路側(cè)設(shè)備將與車輛進(jìn)行通訊，以提高交通效率、避免道路盲點(diǎn)、協(xié)助自動(dòng)駕駛、管理泊車等等。

Apollo is an open source platform for automated driving. But it's not just for driving, I think it's for the whole transportation system. It's going to take many more years for fully autonomous cars to be available everywhere. But before that we can already use AI to significantly improve transportation.

Apollo 是一個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛開源平臺(tái)。但我認(rèn)為，它不僅僅可用于駕駛，還可以用于整個(gè)交通系統(tǒng)。就目前的情況看來，要讓全自動(dòng)駕駛汽車在世界各地普及，還需要很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。但在那之前，我們可以用人工智能來顯著改善當(dāng)下的交通狀況。

Today, every year, more than a million people get killed in car accidents. We think using AI we can significantly reduce the fatality rate for that. Using AI, if you take over the traffic lights you can in real time get a sense of how many cars are there, which direction are they driving, and at what speed, and you can intelligently remind cars that are at risk using the roadside sensors. You can also in real time adjust the traffic light time so that the whole city works in a harmonious way, that the delay will be significantly reduced.

每一年，都有超過一百萬的人在交通事故中喪生。我們認(rèn)為，人工智能可以大大降低由交通事故引發(fā)的死亡。比如在交通信號(hào)燈處使用人工智能，可以實(shí)時(shí)了解路口有多少車輛，以及它們的行駛方向和速度，并且可以通過路邊傳感器實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)危險(xiǎn)車輛的智能提醒。此外，人工智能還可以實(shí)時(shí)調(diào)整交通信號(hào)燈的時(shí)間，使整個(gè)城市的交通更加和諧，從而大大減少交通延誤。

In a Chinese city called Baoding we took over almost all the traffic lights in that city and we were able to reduce the wait time by 20% to 30% during peak hours, so reduce traffic delays by 20% to 30%.

在中國(guó)保定，我們的人工智能系統(tǒng)幾乎運(yùn)用到這座城市的所有交通信號(hào)燈。在高峰時(shí)段我們可以將路口等待時(shí)間縮短20％到30％，從而減少了20％到30％的交通延誤。

Now let's talk about the infrastructure. We know that infrastructure is very important. Highways and high speed rail significantly propelled the growth of China's economy over the past few decades, but going forward, I think the infrastructure for AI will significantly propel the speed of innovation. That includes the app development platform,deep learning framework, general AI technology,and chips designed specifically for AI.

現(xiàn)在，我們來談?wù)劵A(chǔ)設(shè)施。我們都知道，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施非常重要。在過去的幾十年中，高速公路和高鐵極大地推動(dòng)了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，但展望未來，我認(rèn)為人工智能基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施將極大地推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的創(chuàng)新發(fā)展。其中包括應(yīng)用開發(fā)平臺(tái)、深度學(xué)習(xí)框架、通用人工智能技術(shù)和專為人工智能設(shè)計(jì)的芯片。

At Baidu, we have more than 2,000 engineers working on our AI platform. The goal is to let all the other developers, we have millions of developers, to develop all kinds of applications in a more convenient way, a faster way, and a lower cost way.

百度有超過2000名工程師正在致力于發(fā)展我們的人工智能平臺(tái)。而我們的全球開發(fā)者社區(qū)有高達(dá)數(shù)百萬名開發(fā)人員，我們的目標(biāo)是讓所有開發(fā)人員都能以更方便、更快捷的方式和更低的成本來開發(fā)各種應(yīng)用程序。

For conversational AI, we have DuerOS that's used for smart speakers, smart display, or any kind of IOT devices. For Baidu Cloud, it’s optimized for all kinds of AI applications. Apollo, I’ve talked about it, it's an open source platform for autonomous driving. We now have more than 175 eco partners, including all of the major OEMs, Mercedes, BMW, Toyota, Ford. And for Baidu Brain we provide all kinds of basic AI capabilities such as voice recognition, computer vision, natural language processing, and all kinds of recommendation platforms that we use for mobile content. And PaddlePaddle is the deep learningframework originated from China, like Tens or Flow or PyTorch.

在對(duì)話式人工智能系統(tǒng)方面，我們擁有用于智能音箱、智能屏或任何物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設(shè)備的 DuerOS。我們的百度智能云也針對(duì)各種人工智能應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化。就像我剛剛提到過的，Apollo 是一個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛開源平臺(tái)。現(xiàn)在，我們已經(jīng)擁有超過175個(gè)合作伙伴，其中包括各大汽車主機(jī)廠商（OEM），比如梅賽德斯、寶馬、豐田、福特等。通過百度大腦，我們提供多種基礎(chǔ)人工智能能力，例如語音識(shí)別、計(jì)算機(jī)視覺、自然語言處理以及用于移動(dòng)端內(nèi)容的各種推薦平臺(tái)。飛槳（PaddlePaddle）是源于中國(guó)的深度學(xué)習(xí)框架，類似于 TensorFlow 或 PyTorch。

So AI is a big wave, but not every company, not everyone has the power to develop a full-fledged cutting edge AI technology. That's why AI platform is very important and that's why we've devoted a lot of resources to this kind of open source, open platform so that everyone can take advantage of that.

可以說，人工智能是新興的浪潮，但不是每個(gè)公司、每個(gè)人都有能力開發(fā)出成熟的人工智能尖端技術(shù)。這就是為什么人工智能平臺(tái)非常重要、為什么我們?cè)谶@種開源開放平臺(tái)上投入大量資源的原因：讓每個(gè)人都可以方便地從中獲益。

We also use AI for public welfare.

我們還將人工智能用于公益事業(yè)。

We use AI to help find missing people. In China, we've already found more than 9,000 missing people using AI technology, pretty much facial recognition technology. Even if after aperson is missing for more than 20-years, we had a case, a boy, he was lost at age four and at age 25 he was identified as that missing person.

我們用人工智能幫助尋找走失人口。在中國(guó)，我們使用人工智能技術(shù)——主要是人臉識(shí)別技術(shù)，已經(jīng)找到了超過9000名走失人口，其中有的人已經(jīng)走失長(zhǎng)達(dá)二十多年。我們有一個(gè)案例，一個(gè)男孩走失時(shí)才4歲，而我們的系統(tǒng)在他25歲時(shí)仍然成功地找到了他。

And we use AI to help the visually impaired people. We've installed the Baidu Xiaodu smart speaker in a lot of the blind massage parlors. Those massage therapists who are visually impaired can use voice to control air conditioning, control the curtains, control a lot of IoT devices, which makes their life much easier.

我們還用人工智能來幫助視障人士。我們已經(jīng)在很多盲人按摩院安裝了百度小度智能音箱。那些患有視力障礙的按摩師可以使用語音來控制空調(diào)、窗簾等其他物聯(lián)網(wǎng)設(shè)備，從而使他們的生活更加方便。

So AI can be used in a lot of these public welfare cases.

因此，人工智能在此類公益應(yīng)用方面前景廣闊。

I also have a claim, AI will make you immortal. What does that mean? It means that machines can become smarter and smarter, can learn from humans. And today, storage has become cheaper and cheaper, and we can afford to store a lot of personal information.

我曾經(jīng)說過，人工智能能讓人永生。這句話什么意思呢？它的意思就是，機(jī)器可以變得越來越智能，逐漸可以模擬人類。如今，數(shù)據(jù)存儲(chǔ)設(shè)備變得越來越便宜，這讓我們可以負(fù)擔(dān)存儲(chǔ)大量個(gè)人信息的成本。

For example, I make a speech here and it is video-taped, it can be stored for a long time. And your voice can be stored, your video can be stored, your text, your articles, everything about yourself can be digitized.

例如，我在這里講話，通過錄制視頻可以把我說過的話長(zhǎng)期存儲(chǔ)起來。我們的聲音可以被存儲(chǔ)，視頻可以被存儲(chǔ)，文字、文章以及關(guān)于我們自己的一切都可以用數(shù)字化的方式保存起來。

And later on, based on this kind of digital information or content, computers can learn how you think. So after a while, it's not hard to imagine when Tim Cook wants to evaluate whether Apple should work on an autonomous driving project, he can actually ask Steve Jobs, the digital copy of Steve Jobs, if that’s a good idea. Because there is a lot of information about Steve Jobs stored on the internet, and computers can learn the way Jobs thinks. So this makes Jobs immortal. But it's not just Jobs, anyone, anyone’s information can be stored, can be learned, and made available when necessary. So in a sense, AI will make you immortal.

以后，根據(jù)這些數(shù)字信息或內(nèi)容，計(jì)算機(jī)可以模擬人類的思維方式。因此，不難想象，再過一段時(shí)間，如果蒂姆·庫克（Tim Cook）想評(píng)估蘋果是否應(yīng)該開展自動(dòng)駕駛項(xiàng)目，他就可以詢問史蒂夫·喬布斯（Steve Jobs），或者說經(jīng)過數(shù)字化的史蒂夫·喬布斯。因?yàn)榛ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)上存儲(chǔ)了大量有關(guān)史蒂夫·喬布斯的信息，所以計(jì)算機(jī)可以模擬出喬布斯的思考方式。通過這種方式，可以讓喬布斯永遠(yuǎn)地活下去。不僅是喬布斯，任何人的信息都可以被存儲(chǔ)，被計(jì)算機(jī)學(xué)習(xí)和模擬，并且在需要時(shí)進(jìn)行信息輸出。因此從某種意義上說，人工智能可以讓人永生。

That's how fascinating innovation is, that’s how fascinating AI is. India is one of the fastest-growing smart phone markets in the world, and India is also a very large developing country right next to China. We’ve seen fast growth for both countries over the past few decades. And I think for next decade, there will be more opportunities for us. So we at Baidu are very much looking forward to working with Indian institutions to make a better world through innovation. Thank you all.

這就是創(chuàng)新的魅力所在，這就是人工智能的魅力所在。印度是全球增長(zhǎng)最快的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)之一，也是位居中國(guó)之后的第二大發(fā)展中國(guó)家。在過去的幾十年中，我們兩國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)都在快速增長(zhǎng)。我認(rèn)為在下一個(gè)十年中，我們將擁有更多的機(jī)會(huì)。因此百度非常期待能與印度的機(jī)構(gòu)合作，通過創(chuàng)新來創(chuàng)造更美好的世界。謝謝各位。